Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 10.840114 12.428030 14.135109 16.102826 18.304313 20.687307 23.457723
2025-11-09 8.484123 10.635367 13.125882 16.206145 19.896056 24.156036 29.426847
2025-11-16 7.201803 9.568381 12.442172 16.158638 20.804144 26.383251 33.550565
2025-11-23 6.163551 8.638842 11.778486 16.005283 21.492467 28.315066 37.371168
2025-11-30 5.475293 8.038504 11.413921 16.116313 22.418552 30.484489 41.484060
2025-12-07 5.032860 7.703903 11.341284 16.564494 23.763132 33.210934 46.398769
2025-12-14 4.452356 7.103611 10.835483 16.355450 24.171895 34.681533 49.681618
2025-12-21 3.818959 6.354156 10.043487 15.664120 23.839110 35.094668 51.511619
2025-12-28 3.578888 6.166992 10.038846 16.082716 25.067646 37.678647 56.397074
2026-01-04 3.331902 5.941152 9.950830 16.358286 26.085297 39.990138 60.973561
2026-01-11 3.021235 5.580281 9.622411 16.237512 26.494367 41.428613 64.341269
2026-01-18 2.738316 5.235898 9.288429 16.075788 26.816546 42.733385 67.541879
2026-01-25 2.513538 4.973816 9.072982 16.095647 27.431277 44.518255 71.557872
2026-02-01 2.332217 4.770303 8.937099 16.231349 28.228547 46.605317 76.102933
2026-02-08 2.136396 4.519201 8.697519 16.172128 28.698499 48.193930 79.930552
2026-02-15 1.946099 4.258334 8.418551 16.022821 29.004660 49.527875 83.400955
2026-02-22 1.814352 4.095758 8.298424 16.132449 29.732640 51.538961 87.977369
2026-03-01 1.742236 4.043516 8.372182 16.581575 31.044165 54.520259 94.172292
2026-03-08 1.587666 3.807919 8.088285 16.372146 31.218085 55.663359 97.468809
2026-03-15 1.388875 3.458008 7.559662 15.680270 30.514666 55.331887 98.361177
2026-03-22 1.338044 3.420642 7.630610 16.099215 31.776388 58.293360 104.707915
2026-03-29 1.274530 3.348689 7.627134 16.375039 32.790764 60.869347 110.492741
2026-04-05 1.174655 3.183817 7.423961 16.254154 33.078308 62.216865 114.267770